Fabos Fali 
Ikigo cy’u Burayi gishinzwe iby’Isanzure [European Space Agency – ESA], cyagaragaje ko hari ibyago bingana na 2,2% ko ikibuye kinini cyane kiri mu isanzure (asteroid) kizagonga Isi ku wa 22 Ukuboza 2032.
Mu cyumweru gishize ibyago by’uko iki kibuye cyiswe ‘2024 YR4’, cyagwa ku Isi byanganaga na 1,2%.
Mu Chile mu Ukuboza 2024, nibwo iki kibuye cyagaragaye mu isanzure. Cyabonwe na sisitemu ya ATLAS igizwe na telescope zitahura ibibuye bishobora kugonga Isi.
Nyuma y’iminsi ine ku wa 31 Ukuboza, sisitemu z’ikoranabuhanga zikurikirana iby’isanzure zahise zigishyira ku rutonde rw’ibishobora kuzanira Isi ibyago.
Kuva muri Mutarama uyu mwaka, abashakashatsi batangiye kwiga kuri iki kibuye kugira ngo bamenye neza icyerekezo gishobora kwerekezamo mu gihe cyagwa ku Isi.
Kugeza ubu, 2024 YR4 iri ku butumburuke bwa kilometero miliyoni 45 uvuye ku Isi, ikaba igenda irushaho kwigira kure.
Ibipimo by’ibanze byerekana ko iki kibuye gifite metero ziri hagati ya 40 na 90 z’ubugari, bikaba bikekwa ko kirusha ubunini ikibumbano cy’i New York kizwi nka ‘Statue of Liberty’.
Iki kibuye kiramutse kiguye ku Isi gishobora kwangiza ahantu hanini bikagera mu ntera ya kilometero 50 uvuye aho yaguye, bitewe n’umuvuduko cyageranye ku Isi ushobora kugera kuri kilometero 17 ku isegonda.
Kiramutse kiguye ku Isi kandi ntibwaba ari ubwa mbere, kuko mu 2013 i Chelyabinsk mu Burusiya haguye ikibuye nk’iki cyari gifite ubugari bwa metero 20.
Iki kibuye cyaturitse cyane kuruta uko igisasu cya mbere cya kirimbuzi cyatewe i Hiroshima cyaturitse. Cyangije inyubako zirenga 7,000, hakomereka abantu barenga 1,000.
Iki kibuye cya 2024 YR4 kizakomeza kugaragara kugeza mu ntangiriro za Mata, nyuma nticyongere kubonwa na telescope. Abashakashatsi bagaragaje ko kizongera kubonwa n’abari ku Isi mu 2028, bigatera impungenge z’uko bizagorana gukomeza kugikurikirana muri iyi myaka kizaba kitaboneka.
Ibigo bikomeye ku Isi mu by’Isanzure, biri gukurikiranira hafi ibya 2024 YR4 ku buryo mu gihe iki kibuye cyakomeza gutera impungenge, hashobora gutekerezwa uko cyahagarikwa kitaragera ku Isi.
Abahanga mu by’isanzure bavuga ko uko ibipimo by’ibi byago bigenda bihinduka buri uko hagenda hakorwa ubushakashatsi bwimbitse. Ibi bishimangirwa n’uko mu mateka, hari ibibuye nk’ibi byagiye bigaragara nk’ibishobora kugwa ku Isi nyuma bikagaragara ko bitazabaho.
Urugero ni nka Apophis yagaragaje ibyago byo kugwa ku Isi mu 2004, ariko nyuma ikurwa ku rutonde rw’ibibuye bishobora kuyiteza ibyago.
Kugeza ubu, NASA itangaza ko nta kindi kibuye kinini gifite ubushobozi buri hejuru ya 1% bwo kugwa ku Isi.
Fabos Fali 
